September 15, 2005
We're just mid-way the hurricane season
by Liza Sabater
Ophelia seemed to be a teaser earlier, not being able to make up her mind. Is she slow or is she not. It looks thought she's settling for CAT1.
Weather Underground: Wunder Blog
The Cape Lookout CMAN station on the tip of Cape Lookout measured a sustained wind of 65 knots, gusting to 78 knots, at 8pm EDT. These sustained winds are exactly minimal hurricane force, so Ophelia has qualified as a hurricane strike on the U.S. I'm not sure why NHC extended the hurricane warning all the way to the Virginia border; the odds of anyplace besides Cape Lookout and Cape Hatteras getting sustained hurricane force winds is pretty low.
I don't know about you, but that thing still looks massive to me.
By the way, if you have not already checked with NOAA.GOV, we are barely mid-hurricane season. We still have until the end of November. And this season promises to be unusually high.
Climate Prediction Center - Expert Assessments: Atlantic Hurricane Outlook Update
The updated outlook calls for an extremely active season, with an expected seasonal total of 18-21 tropical storms (mean is 10), with 9-11 becoming hurricanes (mean is 6), and 5-7 of these becoming major hurricanes (mean is 2-3). The likely range of the ACE index for the season as a whole is 180%-270% of the median.The predicted seasonal totals include the considerable activity that has already occurred prior to this update (7 tropical storms and 2 major hurricanes). Therefore, for the remainder of the season, we expect an additional 11-14 tropical storms, with 7-9 becoming hurricanes, and 3-5 of these becoming major hurricanes. The expected ACE range during August-November is 110%-200% of the median. These very high levels of activity are comparable to those seen during August-November 2003 and 2004. Given the forecast that the remainder of the season will be very active, it is imperative that residents and government officials in hurricane-vulnerable communities have a hurricane preparedness plan in place.
Posted by Liza Sabater in Weather
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