presidential primary

Everybody's eyes are on Pennysylvania these days. Thanks to the whipsaw nature of the Democratic presidential primary race this year, Pennsylvania's in the spotlight when it comes to electoral politics on the national stage. People everywhere are talking about Pennsylvania -- what it is, what's like, what it all means. Pundits are pontificating right and left about Pennsylvania voters -- who they are, who're they're for, what they're going to do on April 22. And, inevitably, most of them are wrong a lot of the time.

Pennsylvania is just like Ohio, the talking heads are telling us. Well, yes and no. Some parts of Pennsylvania are just like parts of Ohio, demographically speaking. Other parts, not so much. Pennsylvania is a very big place. And, like Ohio, it's a very diverse place, with different parts of the state displaying significantly different historical and sociocultural influences.

The Appalachian Mountains run diagonally through Pennsylvania from lower left to upper right, physically as well as demographically dividing it into several dissimilar environments. Fully a third of the state's 12 million residents live in the Philadelphia metropolitan area, which bustles along the Delaware River valley in the southeastern corner of PA and sprawls across the Delaware and New Jersey lines to include another 2 million of their neighbors.

Another 2-1/2 million Pennsylvanians live in the southwestern part of the state, in the greater Pittsburgh area, near the upper edge of some of the most rugged parts of the Appalachians. While the sociocultural roots of PA's two biggest population centers could hardly be more different, they are both large, sophisticated urban centers and day-to-day life for their residents is more similar than not.

Democrats:

Alabama: Obama...by a lot probably (I called this...polls said Hillary and I didn't believe it)

Georgia: Obama solidly

Illinois: Obama by a lot probably (Duh!)

Kansas: Obama by a lot

Missouri: Hillary (I predicted Obama...still might change?)

North Dakota: Obama

Delaware: Called for Obama

New York: Hillary (based on no returns, simply she's our Senator)

Arkansas: Hillary by a lot

Connecticut: dead heat

Oklahoma: Hillary by a lot

Republican:

New Jersey: McCain

West Virginia: negotiated for Huckabee

Mass: Romney of course

Illinois: projected for McCain

Connecticut: McCain

As of 9:30 PM

Democrat:

Obama takes Delaware and Georgia, projected to take Illinois, ahead in Alabama (I predict he wins despite the earlier polls) and Kansas

Hillary projected to take Oklahoma, New York and Arkansas, ahead in New Jersey and Missouri.

Connectitcut a dead heat.

Republican:

West Virginia (Convention): Huckabee wins thanks to some help from McCain and/or Ron Paul

Romney takes Mass (no surprise)

McCain takes Illinois and Connecticut

Georgia a three way race so far

Voted on my way to work today. Usually when I vote before work I am among the first dozen or so in my election district. Today I was number 31. The polls were not packed the way they were in November 2004 when they were overwhelmed, but they definitely already have lines, something I have never seen in a primary election. Looks like voter turnout will be quite high.

Whoever you are voting for, get out there and vote. Though of course I urge you to join us in voting Obama. Here is a round up of endorsements for Barack Obama:

Culture Kitchen endorsement of Obama

En Espanol from Liza

La Opinion's endorsement of Obama

Paul Volker's endorsement of Obama

Garrison Keilor's endorsement of Obama

Former Chicago Now president's endorsement of Obama

Kate Michelman's (former NARAL president) endorsement of Obama

Awhile back I chastised all the Democratic candidates other than Bill Richardson, Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel for ignoring the Native American vote, a vote that can be critical in the West and even has proven critical in states like Pennsylvania, where efforts by Native American groups helped flip the State legislature from Repub to Dem.

Seems Barack Obama has done a lot to make up for past neglect. The Native American Times, impressed with outreach from his campaign, has endorsed Barack Obama for President:

US Senator Barack Obama is the choice of the Native American Times to become the next president of the United States. This choice made before the all important super Tuesday election to get as many Native Americans to the polls as possible to push Obama to victory. This is not an anti-Hillary vote but a decision based on what is best for Native Americans...

Obama has started to aggressively reach out to Native Americans in word and deed. In his words he has put together a policy which truly addresses Native problems. In his deeds he has actually gone to Indian reservations to seek our votes. He is also the co-sponsor of the all important Indian Health Care Improvement Act. And he continues to seek the Native vote...

Well, in Iowa we had a HUGE surprise win for Obama. I had called it for Clinton. New Hampshire I called for Obama. Looks like, barring a sudden turn around, it will go for Clinton. Well, I DID predict they would go different ways and I got THAT part right.

Iowa: Obama, Edwards, Clinton pull delegates (in descending order)

New Hampshire: Clinton, Obama, Edwards pull delegates (probably in that order)

This throws everything back into play, of course. Will this throw South Carolina back to Clinton? I predict it will go Obama. But I do think Nevada may stick with Clinton, though if the Culinary Union really does go Obama (as rumors circulated today). Which all means Feb 5th will be the big day we all expected it to be.

On the (yawn) Republican side, my predicted win for Huckabee in Iowa and McCain in New Hampshire came to pass. I was wrong about Wyoming which went for Romney instead of my predicted Huckabee.

So:

Iowa: Huckabee, Romney, Thompson pull delegates
Wyoming: Romney, Thompson, Hunter pull delegates
New Hampshire: McCain, Romney, Huckabee pull delegates (probably in that order)

So it really looks like both parties won't have a clue who will win until Feb 5th or after. And you know, that is kind of cool.

The Democrat with the least electable name, Tom Vilsack, has dropped out:

I have the boldest plan to get us out of Iraq and a long-term policy for energy security to keep us out of future oil wars. Our campaign has built the strongest organization here in Iowa, with almost 3,000 supporters among Democratic caucus goers. We are organizationally positioned to win the caucuses in January 2008. We have everything to win the nomination and general election.

Everything except money.

That is why this morning after discussing with my wife Christie and our sons Jess and Doug we have decided to end our campaign for the presidency.

Pragmatic. Vilsack wasn't bad. But he had no chance at all. I am glad he saw this fact so early.