Online tools for predicting Super-Tuesday winners

Joshua Levy had to say this last time around about search patterns and elections :

Amidst all of the head-scratching — or self-flagellating, as I like to call it — following pollsters’ erroneous predictions in New Hampshire is a sign that the web may have had it right all along.

Yahoo! has released some Buzz data that shows that Hillary Clinton’s “Buzz Score” — “the percentage of Yahoo! users searching for that subject on a given day, multiplied by a constant to make the number easier to read” — went up and up in the runup to the New Hampshire primary. At the same time, Barack Obama’s score spiked downward.

In addition, the fine folks at Yahoo! report that on the day of the New Hampshire primary Clinton’s Buzz Score among New Hampshire women spiked on primary day. (It’s scary that they know this information so precisely).

Obama originally led in searches among voters age 45 and older, but by primary day Clinton had a 15% lead over Obama.

If Yahoo's Election08 Political Dashboard is any indication, as of 8:28am EST, the winners will be :

  • Barack Obama : His buzz track has gone up 14.2% for a 67% of all political searches.
  • John McCain : By a razor thin margin given his searches have declined almost 20% while Romney's are up almost 8%.

Another predictor is online betting. Over at William Hill's elections blog they're saying :

Bookmaker William Hill makes it odds-on that Clinton will win more or less half the states up for grabs (Hillary Clinton to win 8-15 states is a 4/7 shot). And virtually the same bet is available for Barack Obama (2/1) (4/7 to win between 7 and 12 states).

This means that anyone who fancies either candidate to strongly outperform the other across the country is guaranteed a good price. Obama to win 13-18 states is currently a generous-looking 7/2.


Eventhough betting sites like BoDog.com are giving Hillary
Clinton the edge, online betting actually failed last year during the midterm elections : The odds last year said the Republicans would keep their majority in the Senate while the House would go to Democrats.

Which leaves me to agree that come August, we will be seeing a brokered convention.


liza's picture

| | | | | | |


Reply

The content of this field is kept private and will not be shown publicly.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • You may link to webpages through the weblinks registry
  • Web and e-mail addresses are automatically converted into links.
  • Textual smileys will be replaced with graphical ones.
  • Easily link to terms in various wikis. For help, see interwiki.
  • Images can be added to this post.
More information about formatting options

Visit our sponsors

Fill up our coffee fund

BlogAds

Buy it!


Visit our sponsors

Get our Digestifs du jour

Nibble daily on our brainy goodness with our daily syndication digest. You'll receive an email with a list and links to the previous day's posts.



Powered by FeedBlitz

culturekitchens

The Publisher
Liza Sabater

Daily servings of political dissent
culturekitchen

Grassroots News and
Activism for New Yorkers

Daily Gotham

Feminist Bloggers
Network

BlogSheroes

A new kind of vouyerism
Voogling

Art + Code + Philosophy
Potatoland.blog

Got any dirt, tips, leads or money for us? Then drop us a line or two at editors [at] culturekitchen [dot] com or use our general contact form to reach everybody in the editorial team ASAP.


Member's articles and stories

More stories

Google Ads

The Big Dialog


Who's online

There are currently 1 user and 1204 guests online.

Online users

Instant Congress

Don't know your Senators or US Representatives' phone numbers?
Enter your street address and zip code and find out right now.
Street number and name only:
Zip Code (5 digits):


Upcoming events

  • no upcoming events available

Words to live by


These new-found tensions which are present at all stages in the real nature of colonialism have their repercussions on the cultural plane. In literature, for example, there is relative over-production. From being a reply on a minor scale to the dominating power, the literature produced by natives becomes differentiated and makes itself into a will to particularism. The intelligentsia, which during the period of repression was essentially a consuming public, now themselves become producers. This literature at first chooses to confine itself to the tragic and poetic style; but later on novels, short stories and essays are attempted. It is as if a kind of internal organisation or law of expression existed which wills that poetic expression become less frequent in proportion as the objectives and the methods of the struggle for liberation become more precise. Themes are completely altered; in fact, we find less and less of bitter, hopeless recrimination and less also of that violent, resounding, florid writing which on the whole serves to reassure the occupying power. The colonialists have in former times encouraged these modes of expression and made their existence possible. Stinging denunciations, the exposing of distressing conditions and passions which find their outlet in expression are in fact assimilated by the occupying power in a cathartic process. To aid such processes is in a certain sense to avoid their dramatisation and to clear the atmosphere. But such a situation can only be transitory. In fact, the progress of national consciousness among the people modifies and gives precision to the literary utterances of the native intellectual. The continued cohesion of the people constitutes for the intellectual an invitation to go farther than his cry of protest. The lament first makes the indictment; then it makes an appeal. In the period that follows, the words of command are heard. The crystallisation of the national consciousness will both disrupt literary styles and themes, and also create a completely new public. While at the beginning the native intellectual used to produce his work to be read exclusively by the oppressor, whether with the intention of charming him or of denouncing him through ethnical or subjectivist means, now the native writer progressively takes on the habit of addressing his own people.


Subscribe Buttons

Feed IconGoogleDeliciousYahoo!BloglinesNewsgatorMSNFeedsterAOLFurlRojoNewsburstPluckFeedFeedsAdd KinjaMultiRSSrMailRSSFwdBlogarithmSimplify