Tomorrow the primaries/caucuses begin with Iowa. For the Democrats, Iowa and New Hampshire maintain their place as the kick off states for the primaries. The Republicans have thumbed their noses at New Hampshire by intercalating Wyoming after Iowa and before New Hampshire. So be it. Some argue that this whole circus and the prominent places for Iowa and New Hampshire are a dumb way to conduct a primary. I have started to feel that the tradition of the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary as leading the way has some merit, though I might add in another state or two within that first week. The reason I like these early testing grounds is that they really are the ONLY time where face-to-face time between candidates and voters is more important than TV spots, and so money may matter just a bit less in the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire primary than it would in major states like Florida or California. Hire a bus and shake hands and make your case in person seems to be the norm in these two states, and having the first votes come in such an environment may well be a good thing. Let TV advertising take full control after individual voters, poking and prodding the candidates in person have had a shot I say. So maybe I am getting old fashioned, but I think Iowa and New Hampshire are good first testing grounds.
So what does the next month mean for determining our next President. Well, we all know it is probably going to all be over Feb. 5th when a whole slew of states, the biggies included, vote. Anything after that is likely to make little difference...with the caveat that as of now neither the Dem nor the Rep field is clear enough that we are guaranteed clear front runners even after Feb. 5th. But what happens between now and Feb 5th is VERY likely to pare things down to clear frontrunners for each party.
First off, I think it comes down to these contenders, realistically speaking.
Democrats: Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Barack Obama
Republicans: Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, John McCain, Mitt Romney
All the other candidates are either tilting at windmills or angling for VP or a cabinet position. For the record, I'd love to see Richardson as VP or Sec. of State. He'd be good in either but hasn't proven himself to be presidential material so far.
IOWA: This caucus is more likely to break a candidate than make one. The top three Dems enter this caucus in a near dead-heat. All three are exceptional candidates each of whom would make a good President. Let me just say that Edwards, with his union/populist approach, had better win Iowa. If he loses, then his chances of winning go down a great deal. He will and should still hang in through South Carolina and Florida, which could save him even if he loses Iowa, but I think Iowa is close to a must win for Edwards. To do this, I think he really needs to get some of votes that the minor players, Richardson, for example, are counting on. If a lot of those leaning Richardson or Dodd or Biden opt for Edwards, he has a shot. Otherwise, the race looks largely between Obama and Hillary. Hillary can most afford to lose Iowa. It would barely dent her strength elsewhere if she loses Iowa. All the others really need Iowa to boost them elsewhere. I predict, though only weakly, that Hillary WILL win Iowa. If that is the case, whoever comes in second will still be going strong, but whoever comes in third or below will be seriously hurt. If Hillary comes in second, I think it will still be largely an open field for the Democrats though obviously whoever comes in first will be positioned as the alternative candidate to Hillary.
For the Republicans Iowa will decide very little. It comes down to Romney vs. Huckabee in Iowa. But McCain and Giuliani are still strong candidates even though they will do poorly in Iowa. I predict Huckabee will take Iowa. If he doesn't, his appeal will take a large, but not fatal hit. That said, I am still predicting (weakly) that Huckabee will get the Republican nomination eventually. Winning Iowa would come very close to ensuring that. But if Romney wins, I think it is still an open field, though it could hurt Huckabee a great deal.
WYOMING: Okay, so the Republicans are pushing Wyoming into the mix...so what. Big deal. Few will be paying attention.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: For the Dems this comes down to Clinton and Obama. Edwards has little chance here UNLESS he wins Iowa. That might boost him to second, but probably not first. I predict (weakly) Obama will get it. This will be interesting because it will place Obama and Clinton as the two first vote winners if my predictions are right. But the truth is, Hillary has a shot at both with Obama second in both or Edwards second in Iowa and Obama second in New Hampshire. If the former happens, then Edwards will have a hard time getting anywhere because it won't be until South Carolina that he has a real shot. That would allow Hillary and Obama the chance to turn it into a two way race. If Edwards is first or second in Iowa, then it will remain safely a three way race.
For the Republicans, this comes down to Romney vs. McCain. It will be VERY hard for McCain to win the nomination if he doesn't win New Hampshire. Truth is, McCain SHOULD have been the easy frontrunner because he is the only Republican candidate with the brains to make an effective President. Problem is he abandoned his independent image for the role of Bush lap dog and that won't play well in New Hampshire...or practically anywhere. McCain probably killed his chances when he embraced Bush just as Bush was going down in flames. But a win in New Hampshire could save him. Otherwise it's going to be Romney. The fact that Giuliani can't even make a real dent in the polls here, not even coming close to second, shows how unlikely he is to go anywhere but into obscurity...kicking and screaming, but into obscurity. Well, that's where New Yorkers wanted him to go. The rest of nation are just learning now what we learned a long time ago: Giuliani is a "tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury signifying...nothing."
MICHIGAN: This is the first big one. On the Dem side it looks like Clinton will take it and I know that this is one of Clinton's top targeted states. The fact that Edwards, despite strong union support and a solid populist message, is not doing well here bodes ill for his chances. He is the natural choice of Michigan voters and by all rights should get their vote. But he hasn't been polling well. A win or second place in Iowa could change that. Even if he simply comes in second in both Iowa and Michigan, he still has a shot. Coming in third in both will be nearly fatal...though he still has South Carolina and Florida to comeback. If Obama has won nothing by now or at least come in second in all, his chances will be fading. And there is a chance Hillary will have won all by this point. If that happens (and it is NOT guaranteed) she will almost certainly win the nomination. My prediction is that Obama will have won one by now and have come in second in the others with Edwards hanging on but not looking good. But this could easily be upset by a strong Edwards showing in Iowa or Michigan. A second place in either will position Edwards well and a first place in either will shoot his chances ahead of Obama's. In some ways, Michigan could quietly be where the Dem nomination gets decided, but it will depend a lot on what has gone on in Iowa and New Hampshire.
On the Republican side it's again between Romney and Huckabee. I have no prediction here. Neither really appeals to Michigan working class demographics, but maybe Huckabee will have the edge in the end. At this point, if Romney has won it all, Huckabee will have a hard time but it will still be possible...and I may well still predict his ultimate win. If Huckabee has Iowa, Wyoming and Michigan by this point, put your bets on him. Interesting that McCain, by far the better choice for Michigan voters, is in free fall in the Michigan polls. However, if he wins New Hampshire, he may be positioned to come in second in Michigan. If the HIGHLY unlikely event occurs that he wins Michigan after a New Hampshire boost, McCain could become the new comeback kid. I don't think it would happen, but if Republicans were smart they would be doing all they can to set this in motion. It is quite possible that after Michigan you might have three Republican candidates each with a win. Try this on for size: Huckabee Wyoming; McCain in New Hampshire; Romney in Iowa and Michigan. If it falls that way, things could really get interesting, though McCain really needs more than just NH to be in the running.
NEVADA: Clinton seems the clear favorite on the Dem side. This is why Obama and Edwards really need a win early because otherwise Hillary has Michigan and Nevada to seemingly cement her lead. Obama, with a win in Iowa or New Hampshire MIGHT be able to challenge Hillary in Nevada, but it would be a long shot and one he probably won't spend much time on.
This is the first state where Giuliani has any shot. He is nominally the frontrunner. But given that it is HIGHLY unlikely that he will win anything before Nevada, my bet is Nevada voters will give up on him. That would hand it to Romney, I suspect. A strong showing by Huckabee or McCain up to this point could put them in a position to contest at least second if not first place, but I think this will go to Romney. In fact, I predict Romney will look like the front runner for the nomination at this point but will ultimately lose it to Huckabee on or soon after Feb 5th.
SOUTH CAROLINA: Supposedly the first Southern test, I think most will be eying what happens in Florida more than SC, at least for Democrats. For the Republican nomination South Carolina could be a better predictor of the South in general than Florida, but the Dems will be looking to Florida because they really are looking to November when it comes to the South and Florida is more important to them then.
Hillary leads, nominally, in SC. I think that is a surprise. If she has done well up until now, she will win SC. That said, I think Obama and Edwards, depending on how they have done up until now, have a shot. Edwards SHOULD be doing better. That is kind of the refrain for his campaign at this point. But I think the polls are underestimating his potential in several states. If this underestimate brings him a win before SC, I think he will have a shot at second here. Again, IA and NH could give Edwards or Obama enough momentum to make a real play for MI and SC and that could really throw the election to any of them. But if IA and NH both go for Clinton, it would be hard for Obama and Edwards to build momentum going into February given Hillary's current lead in Michigan, Nevada and South Carolina. I think rarely could Iowa and New Hampshire have so large an impact as they could this year if they go for either Obama or Edwards. Obama is doing well enough in SC that even if he hasn't won anything up to now (and he might) he has a shot at SC and it could revive what the media will probably be billing as a lost cause. So a win for Edwards in Iowa or NH could be big. If Edwards hasn't won anything by now, he is probably out. But Obama could conceivably hit his stride in South Carolina...though it will be harder if he hasn't won anythng up to this point.
On the Republican side this will go to Huckabee. If Romney has done well up to this point, no one will care that much if Huckabee wins SC. But if Huckabee has been dominating, by now Romney will be falling fast.
Pushed in here Republicans also will be having Louisiana and Hawaii primaries. And no one is paying much attention to this. They won't make or break any candidate, but I think if any Republican candidate HAS been building momentum, these two states could turn that momentum into something unstoppable. That said, I think these won't register much on the nation's consciousness unless there is a surprise. Hawaii could lend life to a Giuliani or McCain candidacy, conceivably, if they have hung on to this point and had at least a second place.
At this point we will be poised to have the big players weighing in. There is a good chance that the Dem field will remain a two or three person race. And I think Giuliani will be dead in the water at this point, though I also think he won't admit it yet. So the Repubs will be a two or three person race as will, depending on how McCain has done. There remains a chance that Hillary will have become unstoppable or Obama or Edwards have flopped. But I don't think either will occur by this point. Huckabee will almost certainly still be a contender, in first or second place. Romney could fall fast and hard or could be in front. I think that is the biggest variable. McCain could be dead or hanging on respectably.
Then come FLORIDA. I think all polls regarding Florida mean little because things will be heavily influenced by how candidates do in Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and South Carolina. Hillary is way ahead in Florida now, but a good showing up to this point could bring Obama up fast. Similarly, a surprise win for Edwards in Iowa or Michigan could boost him into at least second here. But if Hillary dominates to this point, she will win Florida and that will go a long way to sewing it up for her.
On the Republican side, Giuliani is ahead now. I think that means nothing because if he loses everything up until this point, no one will vote for him. If he has managed some respectable second place wins up to this point, it is just barely possible Florida brings him back from the edge and even gives him a shot at the nomination. I don't believe that will happen. Huckabee is surging in Florida. If Giuliani is running well in Florida on Jan 29th, I think Huckabee will slip by to a win. If Giuliani has foundered, then I think Giuliani's supporters will flee to either Romney or McCain, depending on how each of them have done to that point. In which case Huckabee will come in second and either Romney or McCain might get Florida. If McCain manages to get a couple of wins, and Giuliani tanks to this point, I think Florida could save McCain. But it is more likely that it saves Romney. If I were to unwisely put money now, I'd bet Huckabee manages to win Florida and it becomes the media moment when he is declared the nominee. But a lot can happen before then.
So there you have it. Obama and Edwards need early wins...or at least respectable showings until South Carolina and then a MUST win there. Otherwise Hillary's inevitability myth will start to look definite come Florida. Since she is looking good in California and New York now, maintaining a solid lead up to February will mean she will dominate those two states. Almost impossible to beat then. But an early win by Edwards or Obama could change all of that pretty fast.
McCain NEEDS New Hampshire and Giuliani, god help him, is depending on Nevada. If either of them win those states (with maybe Hawaii and/or Louisiana thrown in) it could give them Florida and make them the front runners. If Giuliani pulls THAT off, then New York and California will send him ahead. Again, I don't believe that will happen, but it COULD. McCain looks even weaker. Romney, I suspect, will do worse than expected and fall fast by Florida. He HAS to win the early states or he will look very weak compared to Huckabee. And, I believe, Huckabee will do well. He can even do second place up until South Carolina and suddenly be the frontrunner with a win in Florida. I think it will come down to Huckabee and either Romney or Giuliani by then.
The most interesting might be if Edwards surprises in Iowa and Obama wins New Hampshire, I predict you'll see Edwards getting IA and MI, Obama getting NH and SC, and Clinton getting NV and FL. That would make it a genuine three way race with Hillary having an edge but by no means guaranteed. For the Repubs, Romney doing well in IA and MI, McCain doing well in NH and maybe one other state, Huckabee dominating WY and SC, and Giuliani getting NV and FL would keep that a FOUR way race.
Overall I'd say the Dems have the best field in years and the Repubs really only have one good candidate (McCain) and a bunch of fools who appeal to the worst in Americans...which somehow works among Republican voters. Hillary, Obama and Edwards will all be strong candidates going into November, partly depending on who they choose for VP. Wes Clark or Jim Webb would add to ANY of their chances. Richardson, if he can get some coaching on how to speak to a crowd, could really help out Edwards' chances in November if he is the nominee. Many other options exist as well. The Republicans will find themselves pretty marginalized if they go for Romney. Huckabee might be able to maintain enough of an image of normality to be a strong candidate, but there is enough craziness just below the surface (pardoning rapists, anti-science, too much of a religious fanatic) that I think in the end he will be exposed as the loony he is. Giuliani will piss off too many voters, particularly rural voters. He is unlikely to win the Presidency...ever. McCain can only win if he can find some way to cut himself free of the massive deadweight he latched himself onto: Bush. But he has made that really hard to do. Iraq and a failed economy will hurt all of the Republican candidates. Only by distancing themselves as much as they can from Bush will they have a shot. So far McCain has gone the other way and the others have flipped flopped endlessly on whether they reject or embrace Bush's failed policies. But the next month or month and a half will really shape the 2008 election which will then determine the next 4-8 years of American policy.
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